Pakistan’s Window Is Open – Here’s How to Walk Through It Properly

Safian Khan, Partner, South Asia at COSA

In recent years, Pakistan’s economy has been picking up pace, with GDP hitting a four-year high in FY2026, with forecasts suggesting further growth in FY2027, manufacturing is recovering and investment is starting to flow in. To investors and multinational corporations watching from the sidelines, those numbers look like an invitation.

However, here’s the problem. The standard due diligence most organisations carry out before entering a market, such as a registry search, news scan, sanctions check – they tell you almost nothing about the risk that actually matters. It confirms the company exists. That’s about it. It won’t tell you anything beyond the surface of who really controls it, whether the financials on paper match what’s happening on the ground, and if the “local partner” you’re about to sign with comes with political baggage that only shows up many months in.

This is the exact gap that is missing between compliance and intelligence. It’s usually the difference between a deal that works and one that quietly turns into a write-off a couple of years later.

A scenario worth sitting with

To take an example of a mid-sized manufacturer who is weighing a joint venture with a Pakistani textile producer. On paper, the target looks fine and meets the usual conditions such as being registered, tax-compliant, with no adverse media, and a revenue that seems plausible. A standard compliance check signs off without much thought.

A deep dive intelligence process asks different things: Who’s actually behind the ownership once you get past the nominee shareholders? Does the production capacity they claim match what you’d see if you walked the facility yourself? Is there a political or family connection quietly explaining why local authorities have been so accommodating? What happens to that goodwill if the politics shift? This does not come from a database; rather, it comes from people doing the legwork on the ground.

What this looks like in practice

Registry and public record work. A lot of international companies assume Pakistani corporate registries work like the UK’s or the US’s. They don’t. Not reliably. Beneficial ownership disclosure has become better on paper, but the data still lags real ownership changes more often than you’d like. It’s about knowing where those gaps sit – and where to look instead – this is not something you pick up from a search box.

Talking to people who actually know the business. This is measured, but looks deep into the situation on the ground. Whether they are former employees, industry peers, competitors – people who’ll tell you how a company is genuinely regarded, not how it markets itself. It takes longer than pulling a document. It’s also where most of the real value sits.

Checking whether the financials hold up. Declared financials in emerging markets often diverge from what’s actually going on inside the business. Sometimes tax structuring. Sometimes something you’d want to know about before wiring money. You don’t find out which by reading the accounts on their own.

Mapping the politics. Pakistan’s private sector is still largely family-run, and business relationships tend to be tangled up with political and bureaucratic ones. This isn’t about assuming something is wrong. It’s about knowing what happens to the business the day a relationship sours – which, in Pakistan, isn’t much of a hypothetical.

Why this matters right now

The macro picture is genuinely encouraging. Industrial output is up, fiscal deficit is narrower, reserves stronger than they’ve been in years. But there’s an asterisk on most of it. Some of the growth is imports falling rather than domestic production rising. Inflation’s still vulnerable to energy shocks from the region. And politically, Pakistan has a long track record of scaring off investment even in years when the fundamentals looked solid. An opportunity that looks good today can close just as fast if the work underneath it hasn’t been done.

Real opportunity sitting next to real, underpriced risk. That’s exactly the moment intelligence-led diligence earns its keep.

Four questions worth asking before you sign anything

1. Who actually benefits, beyond the organisation chart? If you can’t trace ultimate beneficial ownership with confidence, you don’t really know who you’re dealing with.
2. Does what’s on the ground match what’s on paper? Capacity, ownership, headcount – things you should be able to check yourself, not just take on faith.
3. What relationships explain this company’s advantages, and what happens to those advantages if the relationship changes?
4. What does the market say when the company isn’t in the room?

This is work for people who know the terrain, are asking on your behalf, and have nothing to gain from telling you what you want to hear.

If you’re looking seriously at an opportunity in Pakistan and want a sense of what a proper intelligence picture would turn up, that’s worth a conversation before terms are signed – not after.